Back in April, I posted a diary entitled “We’ve Created Another Monster”. In that diary I discussed how the Kurds were making plans to secede from Iraq through annexing Kirkuk, negotiating independent PSA’s with oil companies, and destabilizing the northern region. This crisis as I predicted is continuing to intensify with the Iraqi Kurds unwillingness and the Iraqi and US governments unable to stop the cross-border raids of the PKK. The PKK is the terrorist wing of the Kurdish independence movement and has been designated as a terroristic organization by most governments including the US.
Well, true to the script that Iraq is a black hole from which there is no escape; the Kurds are on the move. In the past few weeks the PKK has been conducting deadly cross-border raids against the Turkish military culminating with the kidnap of 8 Turkish soldiers. This incident is causing great alarm in Turkey with demonstrations being held throughout the country calling for government action against the PKK. The PKK has been using northern Iraq to stage their raids against the Turks with the silent acquiescence from the Iraqi Kurds. The patience of the Turks is wearing thin and they are amassing troops on the border with Iraq, the Turkish military has also asked and received authority to cross into Iraq to quell the terrorist attacks and to locate its troops.
The ambush on Sunday was the most serious in recent memory by the militants, separatist fighters of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party, or P.K.K., and came only four days after the Turkish Parliament formally approved contingency plans for military retaliation across the border.
The Turkish military struck back inside Turkey, killing as many as 34 Kurdish militants, the military said today, a higher number than had earlier been reported. But the Kurdish ambush still drew strong public outrage here, and its brazenness could effectively force the government to make good on its warning to send forces into northern Iraq.[1]
As the tensions continue to escalate the Iraqi Kurds seem content to allow events to spiral out of control. I believe this is part of their plan to destabilize the region and create a crisis for the Iraqi government. It will be during this crisis that the Kurds will make their play to try to break away from the Iraqi central government’s authority. As the past weeks have shown the Kurds continue to negotiate and sign PSA’s with oil companies despite calls from the government of al-Maliki and the US to stop the practice.
Saddam Hussein was hung for what he did to the Kurds; I wonder what punishment the current Prime Minister will receive for cracking down on the Kurds? The Kurdish problem has long been a thorn in the sides of Turkey, Iraq, and Iran. Prior to our setting up the Kurds in northern Iraq each country had initiated crackdowns in various forms to subjugate their minority Kurdish populations. Because we allowed the Kurds autonomy in Iraq, they are using that freedom to export terrorism and fan the flames of independence for Kurds in the region. It is these activities that will cause the war in Iraq to escalate into a broader regional conflict. The problem with not studying the country and region you are invading is that you have no perspective or history of the underlying conflicts of that region.
This Kurdish issue is not going to resolve itself quietly through diplomacy I’m afraid. The Kurds seemed to be determined to push this crisis to the breaking point. They have continued to talk of reigning in the PKK and yet have brought none of the leaders to justice. In what appears to be a strategy of forcing the hands of the Turks and the Iraqi central government, the Kurds appear to be playing a game of brinksmanship to take this situation beyond a regional issue into an international issue. I am not sure if the Kurds believe they can bring enough international pressure to form a separate independent Kurd nation or if they want to have the sovereignty of the state of Iraq but still be able to act independently.
Iraqi President Jalal Talabani, who called on the PKK to cease fighting and to turn itself into a political organization, angered Turks further on Sunday by saying: "We will not hand any Kurd over to Turkey, not even a Kurdish cat," according to media.
At the same time, Mr. Talabani seemed to shrug off Turkish requests that the Iraqis hand over P.K.K. leaders hiding in northern Iraq.
“The leaders of P.K.K. do exist in Kurdistan’s rugged mountains, but the Turkish Army with all its power could not stem or arrest them, so how can we?” he said after the meeting which took place in Sulaimaniya in northern Iraq. “Handing over P.K.K. leaders to Turkey is a dream that will never be realized.”[2]
It is obvious by these statements that the Kurdish officials in northern Iraq have no intention of reining in the PKK or of doing anything to lower tensions in the region. It is a dangerous game that they are playing and in the process whatever little success we have in Iraq could be the first casualty of a larger conflict. The US does not seem to have any leverage over the Kurds who are acting as if they are independent of Iraq and the US.
Due to their desperate need to show progress in Iraq and the region, the US has allowed itself to be co-opted by terrorists who have little desire for peace or a unified Iraq. It will be difficult to criticize the Kurds after having held them up as the model of democracy for the whole region. They have us by the short hairs and they know it. This is the monster created from removing a monster…
[1] http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/23/world/europe/23turkey.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin
[2] http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/23/world/europe/23turkey.html?pagewanted=2&_r=1&hp
Wednesday, October 31, 2007
Another Monster Part 2
Monday, October 22, 2007
We Created Another Monster
There is a growing storm brewing in Iraq that no one seems to want to talk about. Although it may be a long ways off, it is brewing none the less. The storm I speak of is the Kurdish issue in Iraq and how it will affect its neighbors, specifically Turkey.
There is growing rhetoric and posturing on both sides concerning this volatile issue that has been simmering for a while now. It began when the US, after the first gulf war created a semi-autonomous Kurdistan region in northern Iraq. For over 10 years the Kurds have had the run of northern Iraq under the protection of the US and have been held out by this administration as a model of democracy. In our usual benevolent way we have armed and financially backed the Kurds allowing them to have free rein in that region. Now granted this region has been a model of stability for Iraq, however considering the other regions in Iraq this is not really hard to do. It’s sort of like being the valedictorian of the “special class”. Your parents are proud, but you’re not going to get a call from Harvard. By allowing the Kurds to progress autonomous of the rest of Iraq, we have created a separate entity that does not seem to have much federalist or Iraqi nationalist fervor.
Fouad Masoun, a Kurdish legislator and deputy chairman of the parliament's constitution review committee, said: "There are some revisions which are necessary, but there are also demands by certain parties we reject, such as returning Iraq to a centralized government or reducing the powers of the Kurdistan region and other regions.
The Kurds do have nationalistic plans, but for the Kurdistan Republic and thus the tension with Turkey. For those that don’t know, Turkey has a large minority population of Kurds who have been trying to become autonomous. The idea of having a nation of Kurdistan on its border has always been unacceptable to Turkey. The issue has continued to complicate our relationship with Turkey whom we consider an ally in the region. Turkey does not want its Kurdish population to get any ideas of becoming autonomous, which is becoming more and more difficult as the Iraqi Kurds get more autonomy. Should the Iraqi Kurds complete their plan to annex the oil-rich city of Kirkuk, a serious diplomatic crisis would ensue. So far, the administration has been able to placate the Kurds through cash and concessions. Should the situation in Iraq continue to deteriorate the Kurds being the strongest and most organized force in Iraq could basically take the city and the oil revenues that it represents. If this were to happen the war would immediately escalate into a regional conflict that Washington could no longer manage.
The Kurds are doing their best to carve out enough oil revenue to fund their nationalistic plans. They have continued to resist having Iraq’s huge oil reserves under the authority of the central government which would go a long way to insure that Iraq remains unified. The Kurds have made their intentions known that they would prefer to have Iraq divided. They also are in favor of independent PSA’s for the oil reserves with foreign oil companies taking control and negotiated at the regional level, again to keep the oil revenues in their hands.
Currently we have a war of words and rhetoric between the Iraqi Kurds and the Turks, but history tells us this will not continue for much longer. Rather than spending some of the “political capital” he may still have, the President and this administration are hoping that this crisis will just go away. You know the same strategy they are prescribing for that whole “global warming” thing.
Mark it down people, we have not heard the end of this confrontation and as long as it is ignored it will continue to fester and spread. This is another of those worsening situations that invading Iraq has fostered. This will be no “Young Frankenstein” I’m afraid.
Tuesday, September 4, 2007
America Supplying Arms to Kurdish Insurgents In Turkey
WASHINGTON, Aug. 29 — Weapons that were originally given to Iraqi security forces by the American military have been recovered over the past year by the authorities in Turkey after being used in violent crimes in that country, Pentagon officials said Wednesday.
The discovery that serial numbers on pistols and other weapons recovered in Turkey matched those distributed to Iraqi police units has prompted growing concern by Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates that controls on weapons being provided to Iraqis are inadequate. It was also a factor in the decision to dispatch the department’s inspector general to Iraq next week to investigate the problem, the officials said.[1]
In the echo of the drumbeat to war with Iran, I found this article very interesting. It is a glimpse into the hypocrisy of not only this administration, but all the media outlets that support it and in a larger sense the idea of American supremacy in the world that so many people support. To view the article in and by itself it appears completely harmless, a few lost American weapons show up in Turkey big deal. It’s not like that region isn’t awash with weapons that we have supplied to help arm the Iraqis, so what if some of them happen to end up in Turkey. It’s not like our government is party to supplying these “insurgent groups” with American arms to kill Turkish citizens.
However, according to the logic of the Bush administration, our government must be involved in their distribution. We have serial numbers that tie them to purchases made by the US military for distribution in that region. This of course is the same logic being used to justify the claim that Iran is supplying Iraqi insurgents with arms to kill US forces.
Markings on the EFPs and mortars, as well as the machining processes, identified the weapons as being Iranian made. "The weapons had characteristics unique to being manufactured in Iran ... Iran is the only country in the region that produces these weapons," according to the anonymous defense official. "The dates of manufacture on weapons found so far indicate they were made after fall of Saddam Hussein."[2]
So if confiscated weapons can be traced back to the country of origin or to the purchase made by a certain country then that constitutes unequivocal evidence that the “government at the highest levels” is involved in the supplying of arms to the insurgents, case closed. So using this logic, then it only stands to reason that our government at the highest levels is also supplying the Kurdish insurgents with weapons that are killing Turkish military personnel. This of course is not how the story is being played, because see in America our motives are pure as the driven snow. Unlike those filthy Persian heathens who are aligning themselves to attack and kill Americans with WMD’s and of course we don’t want to wait for the mushroom cloud before we act.
The amazing thing to me is that there are not more weapons being touted in front of the media from a host of countries. I would be willing to bet if all the information concerning the origin of arms found in that region were published, you could make a case against Israel and most of Europe. Let’s face it there are more weapons in that region, thanks in large part to our weapons giveaway program, that who and how they are being supplied is a lesson in futility. You could make the case of arming the insurgents against a number of countries, including our own. So, after Iran, do we attack ourselves? We have seen the enemy and you know the rest.
Is Iran using the instability of Iraq for its own policy goals? Of course they are, but let’s remember who created this situation for them to try and exploit. I guess Iran is the only country that ever tried to extend its influence on another country during a chaotic situation, those bastards. The insanity of all of this is that we want other countries to help so long as they do it for our benefit and the way we want them to. If they are not there to serve our interests then the hell with them, Iraqi neighbors you can help stabilize the country so long as you don’t interfere with our agenda. So Syria, Jordan, and Iran we will have a conference, but don’t expect to have any input in the outcome. You are only there as a courtesy, for photo-ops for the American media and public.
For many years while we were supporting Saddam Hussein, the Iranians were supporting the Shiites that are now in power. Is it a far stretch of the imagination that they look to those that provided them support and a refuge from the brutality of the Sunni minority, now that they have achieved majority political status. How foolish it must seem to the Iraqis to hear Washington say “stay away from Iran”, sure we supported the brutal dictator and we encouraged you to rise up against that dictator and left you hanging, but we're here now. Forget the fact that they provided you material support and comfort in your darkest days and that many of your current leaders were exiled to Iran, they are bad. They are supplying arms to insurgents, we are supplying arms to insurgents, everyone is supplying arms to the insurgents. No wonder there is no shortage of materials to kill US service people and Iraqi civilians.
[1] http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/30/washington/30contract.html?hp
[2] http://billroggio.com/archives/2007/02/evidence_of_iran_sup.php
Friday, July 27, 2007
Armageddon
BAGHDAD, July 9 — The Iraqi foreign minister, Hoshyar Zebari, warned today that an early American withdrawal from Iraq could bring on an all-out civil war and regional conflict, pointedly telling the United States that it had responsibilities to continue lending support to the Baghdad government.
Mr. Zebari also asserted that Iraq’s neighbor Turkey had massed 140,000 troops near his country’s northern border and urged it to resolve differences with dialogue, not through force.
Mr. Zebari, who is a Kurd, said Iraq was ready “to address all Turkish legitimate security concerns over the P.K.K. or any terrorist activities,” but he warned that Turkey should not use force, and that the Iraqi government was “definitely opposed to any military incursion or any violations of Iraqi sovereignty and territorial integrity.”
He insisted his government was not “running away from our responsibilities” in Iraqi Kurdistan, but he pleaded for patience, saying that
As the level of support quickly vanishes from the “surge” strategy, the administration and its Iraqi frontmen are already starting to sound the alarm. This is the final card left to play in an attempt to resurrect this failed war. How can you scare people when there have already been well over 150,000 people killed with the threat of more deaths. This is akin to going down to hell and threatening to turn up the heat, it’s already a little warm here.
The chorus will continue to build as the US ambassador to Iraq, the President, and of course the ever truthful Tony Snow will began blowing the trumpet of impending doom should we decide to finally take our toys and go home. Of course the difficulty of the situation is that no one involved has a lick of credibility left. This administration has forfeited any “political capital” and credibility it had throughout the prosecution of this war.
The next question is, “Are we responsible for what happens in
Today we have many more questions than answers and while no one really knows what will happen in
I do believe in our absence there will be a spike in violence, but not to the apocalyptic level that these people are projecting. There will be efforts to quell the insurgency and the terrorist activities and these are going to require an upswing in violence. In the end the violence will subside and the Iraqis will either go about the business of rebuilding their country together or separate, it will be their choice. How they resolve the decisions that affect their future will, as it always has been, by their choice. It is the height of arrogance to believe that we are controlling that debate or the outcome. As I have stated many times, democracy cannot be exported at the end of a gun. The Iraqis will either embrace democracy or they won’t; our presence there will not force them into it. As we have seen, our pressure on the new government has backfired; the Iraqi government has yet to make substantial progress on any of the so-called benchmarks given by the President. And despite this evidence you still have the die-hards wanting to stay the course.
But
Do they drug test these guys? If not, I think we should make it mandatory. This guy has to be on drugs to say some of the things he says. No rational person could see what is happening in
[1] http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/news/news-iraq.html
[2] http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/07/10/us.iraq/index.html
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