She Has Only Begun To Fight

Even if you are a Senator Clinton supporter her latest remarks about continuing the fight even after Texas and Ohio have got to be a little disconcerting. While it has been an historical and exciting primary season, I find it hard to believe that if after the Texas and Ohio primaries Senator Clinton has not been able to make up lost ground on Senator Obama that she would continue the fight. Though there have begun to be calls that Senator Clinton should abandon her quest for the Presidency I think that they may be premature. At this point the nomination is still as much hers as it is Senator Obama’s, but at some point I hope she recognizes that to continue to fight would be detrimental to the Party and the eventual nominee.

Even though Senator Obama has scored a series of wins and appears to be driving towards the nomination Senator Clinton still has a mathematical chance at regaining her footing and possibly winning. I know it seems unlikely and I personally believe that she will not win, the process must continue at least until Texas and possibly Ohio. There are a number of reasons why I think Senator Clinton will not win the nomination that I would like to discuss here.

The first is politics is a lot like sports, momentum plays a large part in the outcomes. Everyone wants to back a perceived winner. And also just as in sports, perception is often times the reality. Senator Obama is riding the wave of 11 straight victories and nothing succeeds like success. Senator Clinton has not won a contest since Super Tuesday, not only has she not won but has also been losing by double digits. Donors follow the winners, the more you win the easier it is to raise funds. Hillary’s donors have got to be feeling the heat right now and fundraising has got to be tough.

Indeed, Obama now appears to be at a tipping point where all the good news is his and all the bad news is hers. Beyond Clinton's string of recent losses, she has also replaced her campaign manager and deputy manager and loaned her campaign $5 million from personal funds.

Whether these developments turn Obama's campaign into a bandwagon in which Democratic voters start piling on -- the more historically normal pattern at this stage -- will determine whether Obama seizes front-runner status or the two keep slugging it out into the spring.[1]

The second is the fact that we are even in this position so late in the primaries. No candidate has ever been afforded all of the tools given to Senator Clinton at the beginning of this process. Let’s face it no candidate had more money, name recognition, or organization than Hillary Clinton, the fact that she is still in a dog-fight with a one-term unknown Senator speaks to her organizational skills and potential electability. Even her supporters have to be concerned by the current turn of events. Who could have predicted this scenario at the end of last year? This thing was suppose to be over by New Hampshire. The biggest explanation for this meltdown can only be the decision making inside the Clinton campaign, which has to fall on the candidate and not the manager.

WASHINGTON — She had everything going for her. The most famous name in politics. A solid lead in the polls. A war chest of at least $133 million.

Yet Hillary Clinton now finds herself struggling for political survival, her once-firm grasp of the Democratic presidential nomination seemingly slipping away.[2]

The third is concern of campaign fund mismanagement that is only now starting to surface. These concerns should have surfaced after the Senator’s senatorial re-election campaign which spent 30 million dollars on a campaign with only token opposition. The thing with campaign spending is that as long as you are winning no one really counts the cost, but as soon as you start losing every nickel is scrutinized. Right now Senator Clinton’s campaign spending is not only being scrutinized by the media and the blogosphere, but also her campaign donors and no one seems to like what they are finding. The campaign’s free-wheeling spending is causing alarm and now that the news has gotten out that the Senator had to loan her own campaign 5 million dollars the speculation is going through the roof.

If Senator Clinton had won the nomination as expected, would we be discussing her campaign spending now? I seriously doubt it. I think that because the Senator did not win as expected people are now looking for reasons to abandon her campaign and this is as good an excuse as any. The American public, media, and donors are fickle. One day you’re riding high and the next day you’re yesterday’s news. If Senator Clinton is not able to win Texas by double digits, I think it would be incumbent on her to bow out for the good of the Party. We will get to see if her own personal ambition is more important than the Party. If that proves to be the case, then I think the public, including a lot of her supporters will turn against her for good.

WASHINGTON — She had everything going for her. The most famous name in politics. A solid lead in the polls. A war chest of at least $133 million.

Yet Hillary Clinton now finds herself struggling for political survival, her once-firm grasp of the Democratic presidential nomination seemingly slipping away.[3]

[1] http://www.miamiherald.com/top_stories/story/417041.html
[2] http://www.mcclatchydc.com/227/story/28357.html
[3] http://www.mcclatchydc.com/227/story/28357.html